Summers论中国经济

周一上海股市大跌前，哈佛前校长、经济学家Larry Summers发表了这篇有关中国经济的文章，题曰"A Japanese Lesson for China"。作者提到，今日的中国之经济发展是不可否定的。它含有以下特点：高saving/investment rate、强大的中央银行储备和盈余所带来的汇率调控、以及以银行为主、高度控制、支持国内企业的金融系统、以及与政府紧密联系的工业。他说，现在的中国经济与1980年代末1990年代初的日本经济非常相近：

All of this describes what is happening in China, and with our relationship with Beijing, today. It also describes the Japanese economy in the late 1980s and early 1990s, before its lost decade of deflation and considerable deterioration in global prestige. Although there are obvious differences, notably China's much lower level of development, the similarities are striking enough to invite an effort to draw some lessons from the Japanese experience.

但是日本1990年代所面对的则是一个备受世界耻笑的经济萧条:

The definitive history of Japan's dismal decade has yet to be written. But most observers would agree that key elements included the bursting of stock market and land bubbles, the resulting problems in the financial system, the collapse of aggregate demand as banks stopped extending credit and the difficulty of moving from export-led growth to domestic-led growth once consumer and business confidence was lost.

我们通过后见之明则可发现当时日本的问题很大程度上是政府政策错误所造成的：

they followed easy monetary and financial policies that gave rise to huge asset price bubbles and expansions in credit, which set the stage for the downturn. At the same time, they failed to encourage a shift to domestic demand-led growth at a moment when consumers were enjoying record increases in wealth. And they allowed problems in the banking system to fester

也就是说，如果中国不接受日本所犯下错误的教训，则有可能在不久的将来上演日本90年代的好戏。Summers认为，明智的政策应该包括扩宽和放松汇率、允许人民币升值，和鼓励消费来推动国内需求所带来的长远经济发展。而这些政策在经济情况大好时推广则比在萧条后再来补救要容易得多。